posted 03-11-2006 08:52 PM            

When we speak of “literacy” or “illiteracy”, it’s generally in terms of bare functionality in reading. A “literacy program” is usually assumed to be intended to teach students to be able to read street signs, employment applications and the like. When you describe somebody as “literate”, however, you are generally not praising them for their ability to cope with aisle signs in the supermarket, but rather implying that they are familiar with literature - i.e., that they have read some “good” books. So, perhaps, it should be with “numeracy”. A “numerate” person should be able to do more than just do simple mathematics; they should also be familiar with some numbers.

This has a particular bearing on junk science, pseudoscience, and the like; the problem with innumerate people in these areas is usually not that they can’t add, subtract, multiply and divide, but that they don’t know the basic numbers needed to judge the validity of scientific claims. (Don’t get me wrong; there’s plenty of junk science that does require mathematical manipulation more sophisticated than basic arithmetic to debunk; I’m just saying there’s also a lot that only requires simple numerical comparisons).

Thus, just like a there are a lot of sites that have various lists of “The 100 Greatest Books” or “100 Books You Need to Read to be Culturally Literate”, I propose we make a list of “100 Numbers You Need To Know to Debunk Junk Science”. In most cases, it would be perfectly adequate to know them to one significant digit. Here’s a start; I’m not listing these in any particular order and certainly not 100, just what I think of in the next five minutes or so. And also I’m not providing any actual numbers, just what the numbers represent. Finally, some of these are percentages; I’m reluctant to include those (especially after the illustrious Richard Cohen volunteered that he didn’t understand them) but I don’t see any way around them.

1. The (human) population of the world
   
2. The population of China
   
3. The population of the European Union
   
4. The population of the United States
   
5. Some number that gives you some idea of what 1 million of anything is.
   
6. Same for a billion
   
7. Same for a trillion
   
8. A way of comparing the time our species has existed to total geological time
   
9. The same for eukaryotes
   
10. The percentage of US pregnancies that end in miscarriage.
    
11. The percentage of US live births that have a serious birth defect.
    
12. The percentage of US deaths due to cancer
    
13. The US life expectancy at birth in 1900
    

As I said, that’s just some starting suggestions; I’m sure all of you can think of much more useful ones. Maybe the end result would be publishable - I can see Debunker.org’s 100 numbers you need to know to be Numerate on the bookshelves.

posted 03-11-2006 11:30 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by setnahkt:
Maybe the end result would be publishable - I can see Debunker.org’s 100 numbers you need to know to be Numerate on the bookshelves.

---

posted 03-11-2006 11:43 PM            

Square footage and acreage. Or anything related to real estate.

Scenario: young couple looking for a home. Without actually seeing 2 choices, they're informed of (same price) a 3 bedroom 2 bath home at 1600 square feet and a 2 bedroom 2 bath, 1600 square feet but it's a two story. They think a two-story should be bigger. Or maybe the three bedroom should be. But they don't know why.

Scenario #2: Same couple (I used a young couple-early 20s) as one would think what they learned in college, if they attended, would still be fresh in their minds)is buying 30 acres of land somewhere.They think of that 30 acres of some square patch of land to drop a farm on. Only this time they get to see the property and find said 30 acres is a 100' wide strip of land, 30 acres total, winding along a river, heavily wooded. Not only do they have any idea what they're looking at, they're clueless. They can't run the numbers in their head as they never learned how to in the first place.

(Note: they were looking for land, with no specifications what type of land, just heard the 30 acres part and the price was nice).

posted 03-13-2006 10:24 AM            

quote:

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Originally posted by driedwater:
...Square footage and acreage. Or anything related to real estate...

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Good one. I heard on the radio this morning that fires in New Mexico had burned 70K acres, and I realized I had no idea how to related that to anything. So in the nummeracy program, we might have:

1. Something familiar to you that's about 1 acre in area.
   
2. Same for 100 acres
   
3. Same for 10000 acres
   

posted 03-13-2006 11:19 AM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by setnahkt:
Good one. I heard on the radio this morning that fires in New Mexico had burned 70K acres, and I realized I had no idea how to related that to anything. So in the nummeracy program, we might have:

1. Something familiar to you that's about 1 acre in area.
   
2. Same for 100 acres
   
3. Same for 10000 acres
   

I'm hoist by my own petard here; I'm going to have to go out and look at some maps so I can get a feel for those areas. Thanks.

---

I heard that report too. It stopped me for a second until I engaged my brain and figured that they said acres and not square miles. 70,000 acres is the area of a square about 10 miles on a side. It sucks if your home is inside the square, but in terms of the area of the state of NM (120,000 square miles, mostly consisting of sand and dead armadillos), it's a tiny fraction.

llater,

llamas

------------------
. . . a truly bad and evil man. So bad and evil that he's banned by Kim du Toit.

"All things are ready, if our minds be so."
King Henry V, Act 4, scene 3

posted 03-13-2006 12:26 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by llamas:
...but in terms of the area of the state of NM (120,000 square miles, mostly consisting of sand and dead armadillos), it's a tiny fraction.

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Stop picking on KGB

Adding on:

A useful description of dilution. What is a part-per-billion, ppm, ppt, in terms that people can visualize.

You've suggested area, what about length.
from angstrom all the way to a light year.
------------------
lane h. can be reached at laneman@erols.com
"Never let your mind remain so open that your brain falls out."

posted 03-13-2006 01:02 PM            

teaspoons in a tablespoon
tablespoons in a cup
fluid ounces in a cup

And if you think this isn't important, I'll let you try some of the deer sausage my dad made when he confused teaspoons and tablespoons on the amount of salt the recipe called for.

Also, some basic concepts:

1. Difference between speed and acceleration. (On an episode of one of those crime shows (CSI: Valdosta I think) that prides itself on scientific accuracy, the lead investigator said "terminal velocity is 32 ft/sec squared..." No, it isn't, but I digress)

posted 03-13-2006 01:21 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by LaneH:
Stop picking on KGB

---

I'm not a dead armadillo.

posted 03-13-2006 01:56 PM            

Number of Americans struck by lightning each year.
Number of Americans who die of water poisoning each year.

Whenever I read a new scare statistic in the media, I like to compare it to the first. Most of the time, lightning proves more dangerous than the hysteria-du-jour.

posted 03-13-2006 02:55 PM            

A while back there was a "Sugar Counsel" ad extolling the virtues of sugar thus: "only 18 calories per teaspoon, and it's all ENERGY!

Of course, that COULD read "only 18 energy units per teaspoon, and it's all CALORIES!"

Obviously, the "Sugar Counsel" is comfortable with the knowledge that most of their consumers are dumb as a post.

posted 03-13-2006 03:24 PM            

Kilowatt-hours per capita per year consumed in America: about 100,000, worth ~$10,000 U.S. if it were all supplied as electricity to homes.

Amount of coal required to produce that much energy: 16 tons.

Amount of uranium " : 4.4 grams.

Percentage of energy we import: about 30%.

Percentage of petroleum we import: about 62%. It follows that we produce about 38% of our petroleum domestically -- we are a major oil producer; it's just that we are an even more major oil consumer.

Percentage of imported petroleum that comes from the Middle East: 40%, or 25% of our total petroleum consumption.

Percentage of imported oil that comes from Latin American countries ruled by moonbat Leftist dictators (a.k.a. Venezuela): about 11%.

Percentage of imported oil that comes from dirt-poor African nations noted for their brutal ethnic strife (a.k.a. Nigeria): about 8%.

posted 03-13-2006 03:47 PM            

quote:

---

Amount of imported oil that comes from peaceful, benign Canucks: about 13%.

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posted 03-13-2006 04:37 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by KGB:
Percentage of imported petroleum that comes from the Middle East: 40%, or 25% of our total petroleum consumption.

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I am afraid this one will not do. Two percentages in the same sentence may be asking to much of the innumerate. Might be good to break down who gets what on a dollars worth of gas (including taxes).

A million inches is roughly 15 and 3/4 miles.

posted 03-13-2006 04:56 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by 10SNE1:
Vs. what percentage that comes from bellicose, malicious Canucks?

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posted 03-13-2006 07:02 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by LaneH:
...A useful description of dilution. What is a part-per-billion, ppm, ppt, in terms that people can visualize...

---

That's why I suggested a way of relating to a million, billion or trillion of anything. My personal preferences are time units, thus:

1 million seconds = 11 and a half days
1 billion seconds = 32 years
1 trillion seconds = 32000 years

Thus 1 ppm = 1 second in a 11 and a half days, etc. I didn't want to be more specific about what was used to visualize or otherwise relate to the concept, since that a matter of personal taste. For example it might be easier to imagine 1 ppm as 1 cent in $10K, 1/32 of an inch on a football field, one minute in 2 years, etc.

posted 03-13-2006 07:07 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by Sam Mc Kee:
A couple I think everybody should know:

Number of Americans struck by lightning each year.
Number of Americans who die of water poisoning each year....

---

posted 03-13-2006 07:07 PM            

Heh.

I will have an address for you all to turn in your homework assignments soon. Someone farged something somewhere and I am sure it wasn't me.

Please add some context and use and comparison, not just raw numbers.

posted 03-13-2006 07:14 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by KGB:
How about:

Kilowatt-hours per capita per year consumed in America: about 100,000, worth ~$10,000 U.S. if it were all supplied as electricity to homes...

---

posted 03-13-2006 07:20 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by setnahkt:
That's why I suggested a way of relating to a million, billion or trillion of anything. My personal preferences are time units, thus:

1 million seconds = 11 and a half days
1 billion seconds = 32 years
1 trillion seconds = 32000 years

Thus 1 ppm = 1 second in a 11 and a half days, etc. I didn't want to be more specific about what was used to visualize or otherwise relate to the concept, since that a matter of personal taste. For example it might be easier to imagine 1 ppm as 1 cent in $10K, 1/32 of an inch on a football field, one minute in 2 years, etc.

---

Well, I was thinking along the lines of x amount of liquid in a swimming pool = whatever, or how much would be in you 250 gallon whirlpool, as a comparison.

So, I think we should approach all these comparisons from many angles. The more comparisons we show, the more people will get it.

posted 03-13-2006 07:23 PM            

Do we want to put together such a book? I'd be willing to do my part.

posted 03-13-2006 07:30 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by KGB:
In complete seriousness:

Do we want to put together such a book? I'd be willing to do my part.

---

I am not joking - I will do the sections that I proposed and edit/compose everything for real time consumption.

posted 03-13-2006 09:42 PM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by SPQR:
I think it would be best if the focus was important knowledge, not a trivia contest.

---

Ok, what do you mean by trivia?

I was thinking that a good comparison of 'numbers' to things/stuff that people had an everydayday feel for would be useful.

Ok, more thoughts needed on what needs to be written and how I will edit.

ed-lay off the mojito, spletting good is good
------------------
lane h. can be reached at laneman@erols.com
"Never let your mind remain so open that your brain falls out."

posted 03-13-2006 10:58 PM            

Most everyone has immediate access to an excellent calculator, which was included with their operating system. Including simple steps to accomplish calculations might help. Although this may seem like a waste of time (and bandwidth), excluding those that are willing to learn, or have forgotten, is excluding many that are potential allies against the politics, misinterpretations and abuse of science.

I hope Anne will become involved with editorial and chief eviscerator duties.

posted 03-14-2006 02:31 AM            

I'm barely numerate myself, but I get all fussy about mistakes and exaggerations with velocities. I get especially cantankerous when people use "feet per second" or "meters per second" to try to add authority to whatever they are talking about.

What's faster, the terminal velocity of a skydiver, or the world's fastest motorcycle? A Lockheed SR-71 or a bullet fired from say... A Whelan?

posted 03-14-2006 06:10 AM            

'What's faster, the terminal velocity of a skydiver, or the world's fastest motorcycle? A Lockheed SR-71 or a bullet fired from say... A Whelan?'

You're a bad person . . .

These are all excellent suggestions.

I think if a thing like this were to be done, that there needs to be some instructive content if you actually want it to help & inform people.

Most of the problems that people run into are not that they are innumerate per se - most people can do basic math - but that they have never been taught (or acquired) a solid grasp of two principles - scale and/or proportion. And those concepts come very, very easy to most people here, yet can be very hard for many to grasp.

A second instructional course might be a basic primmer in probability theory, a thing that many people have gotten a wonderful walloping over here in the past. Illustrate with examples of the most wildly improbable events that occur every day.

A third might be a list of the warning signs that someone is trying to mislead you - use of units which make amounts appear very large, or very small, confusing units, chartsmanship (hat tip - John Brignell ) and so forth.

A fourth might be a basic primmer in the immutable laws of the universe. The Laws of Thermodynamics in everyday form. The principles of 'cui bono?' and rent-seeking.

In other words, some context.

llater,

llamas

------------------
. . . a truly bad and evil man. So bad and evil that he's banned by Kim du Toit.

"All things are ready, if our minds be so."
King Henry V, Act 4, scene 3

posted 03-14-2006 06:39 AM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by SPQR:
I meant that picking numbers that convey knowledge would be preferable over numbers that are merely interesting ( to us ) trivia would result in a more useful compendium.

I wasn't criticizing any particular submission.

---

Yah

posted 03-14-2006 10:51 AM            

quote:

---

Originally posted by LaneH:
Does accuracy vs. precision fit in to numeracy?

---

I believe it does. Seems to me we need to setup some type of outline of which "Accuracy vs. Precision" could be one chapter. Kind of what KGB said. I think we have to relate the number to where people encounter them. For example, kilowatt – hours might be best to address in relation to their electric bill and RR with media reports of medical studies. Some possible chapters:

Science in the media – do science journalist know anything about science?

or

Science in the media – are science journalist numerically literate?

Risk Ratios and Media reports of Medical Studies – The missing numbers.

posted 03-14-2006 12:16 PM            

llamas

------------------
. . . a truly bad and evil man. So bad and evil that he's banned by Kim du Toit.

"All things are ready, if our minds be so."
King Henry V, Act 4, scene 3

posted 03-14-2006 03:06 PM            

I will volunteer to do energy numbers, if there is a consensus that that is a reasonable collection of numbers around which to build a chapter.

I also volunteer to write a chapter on very large and very small numbers and how scientists think about them (introducting scientific notation, among other things.) As an astronomer, I feel reasonably well qualified on this topic. I welcome suggestions on how to address the topic (as well as suggestions on which very large and very small numbers to use as examples.)

------------------
Kent G. Budge

Every profession is a conspiracy against the laity.

--George Bernard Shaw

posted 03-14-2006 04:32 PM            

1) General Overview of Energy

2) Sources of Energy
. a. Oil
. b. Gas
. c. Nuclear
. d. Hydro
. e. Alternative
. i. Solar
. ii. Wind
. iii. Bio-fuels

3) Consumption of Energy
. a. Gasoline and your Automobile
. b. Your Electric Bill
. c. Heating The Home